Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 560 LANDED 11:08 AM HT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 560 · LAX → KOA

took off 8:46 AM PT · landed 11:08 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 560 · LAX → KOA

Odds over time