AS 574 · SAN → SEA

departs 3:54 PM PT · arrives 6:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ 3pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 574 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?