Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 632 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:42 PM PT, ETA 10:02 PM MT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 632 · SEA → PHX

took off 7:42 PM PT · expected to land 10:02 PM MT (scheduled 7:55 PM PT → 10:53 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 632 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?