Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 635 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:30 PM PT, ETA 7:38 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 635 · SEA → SAN

took off 5:30 PM PT · expected to land 7:38 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 635 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time