Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 653 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:47 PM ET, ETA 6:52 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 653 · BWI → PDX

took off 4:47 PM ET · expected to land 6:52 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 653 · BWI → PDX

Odds over time