Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 674 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 674 · PHX → PAE

departs 2:23 PM MT · arrives 5:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late nan% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 674 · PHX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?