AS 681 · SEA → SMF

departs 5:04 PM PT · arrives 6:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SMF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 681 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?