Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 687 LANDED 7:50 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 687 · SEA → SNA

took off 5:42 PM PT · landed 7:50 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 687 · SEA → SNA

Odds over time