Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 731 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:43 AM MT, ETA 2:13 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 731 · PHX → PAE

took off 11:43 AM MT · expected to land 2:13 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PAE that day

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 731 · PHX → PAE

Odds over time