AS 826 · HNL → LAX

took off 11:54 AM HT · landed 8:03 PM PT (scheduled 11:44 AM HT → 7:56 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 826 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?