Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 834 LANDED 10:54 AM HT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 834 · PDX → KOA

took off 8:26 AM PT · landed 10:54 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 834 · PDX → KOA

Odds over time