Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 842 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 842 · HNL → SFO

departs 11:26 PM HT · arrives 7:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 842 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?