Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 845 · OGG → LAX

departs 1:49 PM HT · arrives 10:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 845 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?