Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 855 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 855 · SEA → HNL

departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:28 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 855 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?