Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 922 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AS 922 · SJC → KOA

departs 7:38 AM PT · arrives 10:00 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 922 · SJC → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?