AS 93 · HNL → SAN

took off 10:32 PM HT · expected to land 6:33 AM PT (scheduled 10:24 PM HT → 6:50 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 10pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 93 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?