Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9461 LANDED 5:05 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 9461 · SEA → SAT

took off 11:31 AM PT · landed 5:05 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9461 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time