B6 136 · PHX → JFK

took off 1:38 PM MT · expected to land 8:42 PM ET (scheduled 1:27 PM MT → 9:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 136 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?