Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
B6 1538 · JFK → MVY
departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 30%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 26%
Fri 10/9 22%
Sat 10/10 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MVY (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.