Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 3:14 PM AT · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 38%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,840 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.