Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
B6 485 · ROC → JFK
departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 1:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 25%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.01 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.