DL 1253 · JFK → DTW

took off 7:39 PM ET · expected to land 8:52 PM ET (scheduled 7:30 PM ET → 10:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1253 · JFK → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?