Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1407 LANDED 5:56 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

DL 1407 · DTW → RDU

took off 4:43 PM ET · landed 5:56 PM ET (scheduled 4:02 PM ET → 5:47 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1407 · DTW → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?