Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1631 LANDED 5:27 PM ET, ~20 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

DL 1631 · ORD → LGA

took off 2:40 PM CT · landed 5:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1631 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time