Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1685 LANDED 10:00 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

DL 1685 · MCO → JFK

took off 7:54 PM ET · landed 10:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1685 · MCO → JFK

Odds over time