DL 2234 · IAD → TPA

took off 9:12 PM ET · expected to land 11:05 PM ET (scheduled 8:46 PM ET → 11:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.5 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2234 · IAD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?