Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 231 LANDED 3:47 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

DL 231 · FCO → JFK

took off 12:57 PM CEST · landed 3:47 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 231 · FCO → JFK

Odds over time