Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 471 LANDED 12:15 AM ET, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

DL 471 · LAX → ATL

took off 5:34 PM PT · landed 12:15 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 471 · LAX → ATL

Odds over time