Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 785 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

DL 785 · PHX → DTW

departs 3:28 PM MT · arrives 10:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 785 · PHX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?