Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 831 LANDED 6:27 PM CT, ~77 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

DL 831 · SEA → AUS

took off 12:53 PM PT · landed 6:27 PM CT (scheduled 11:00 AM PT → 5:16 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 831 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?