Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1238 LANDED 4:54 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

F9 1238 · MCO → ISP

took off 2:42 PM ET · landed 4:54 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ISP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1238 · MCO → ISP

Odds over time