Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1786 LANDED 4:13 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 1786 · MCO → RDU

took off 2:50 PM ET · landed 4:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1786 · MCO → RDU

Odds over time