F9 2261 · DEN → ELP

took off 4:48 PM MT · landed 6:19 PM MT (scheduled 4:39 PM MT → 6:42 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2261 · DEN → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?