F9 2266 · BWI → SJU

departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 1:25 AM AT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2266 · BWI → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?