Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2309 LANDED 5:07 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

F9 2309 · BWI → MCO

took off 3:16 PM ET · landed 5:07 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2309 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time