Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2836 LANDED 2:48 AM ET, ~8 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 2836 · TPA → PHL

took off 12:42 AM ET · landed 2:48 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2836 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time