F9 3283 · DFW → PHX

departs 8:57 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3283 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?