Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3381 LANDED 11:53 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

took off · landed 11:53 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time