F9 3540 · LAS → DEN

departs 2:53 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3540 · LAS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?