Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3856 LANDED 1:13 PM ET, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 3856 · MCO → PHL

took off 11:17 AM ET · landed 1:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3856 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time