Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3861 LANDED 2:55 PM MT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 3861 · DEN → SLC

took off 1:51 PM MT · landed 2:55 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3861 · DEN → SLC

Odds over time