F9 4344 · DEN → XNA

took off 4:09 PM MT · landed 6:27 PM CT (scheduled 3:45 PM MT → 6:43 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to XNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4344 · DEN → XNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to XNA?