Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
F9 4440 · FLL → PHL
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 12:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 45%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3 41%
Sun 10/4 49%
Mon 10/5 40%
Tue 10/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 2.21 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.