Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4612 LANDED 11:08 PM MT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

F9 4612 · LAS → DEN

took off 8:44 PM PT · landed 11:08 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±3 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4612 · LAS → DEN

Odds over time