Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4993
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
F9 4993 · MSY → DFW
departs 2:14 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 78%
Thu 10/1 93%
Fri 10/2 65%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 35%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.