G4 4 · LAS → FAT

took off 3:13 PM PT · landed 4:01 PM PT (scheduled 2:53 PM PT → 4:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 4 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAT?