Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3477 · ORD → CMI
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMI
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
CMI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.