Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3484 LANDED 6:22 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3484 · ORD → CMI

took off 5:56 PM CT · landed 6:22 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CMI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ CMI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CMI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3484 · ORD → CMI

Odds over time