Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3565 LANDED 4:49 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

MQ 3565 · ORD → PIA

took off 4:18 PM CT · landed 4:49 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PIA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3565 · ORD → PIA

Odds over time