Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3570 LANDED 11:45 PM CT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3570 · PHX → ICT

took off 7:55 PM MT · landed 11:45 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ICT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

ICT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3570 · PHX → ICT

Odds over time